Trends on a Collision Course
by Raymond M. Coulombe

There are plenty of people out there trying to predict the future. No, not Madam Fakesky and her crystal ball, serious, logical, scientific people with a lot on the line. Investors want to have some idea where the economy is going. Farmers want to have some idea what the weather is going to be like during the next growing season. Insurance companies want to know the probability of hurricanes. Environmentalists study changes in the environment and project possible effects on living systems.

Futurists look at trends and try and see where we are heading. I would hate to have that job right now. Some trends are easy to project. The past is the future. If day after day, the same things happen, it doesn't take a genius to see what tomorrow will be like. The whole projection bit gets complicated, but they have had a certain amount of success in the past.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Especially now.

Analogy time. A cart is rolling down a gentle slope. By studying the increase of speed, adding in factors like wheel friction and wind resistance, it is possible to get a fair idea how fast and where the cart will be 5 minutes from now.

Unless, of course, the cart falls off a cliff. If that happens, all calculations are off. Doesn't bode too well for the cart either.

Right now, the human race is quickly approaching the edge of a cliff.

Two cliffs.

Cliff number one: the singularity. I first came across this concept while reading the S/F writer Vernor Vinge. The readers never get to see exactly what happened during the singularity, hence the name. The characters in her book were in time stasis. They were taken out of time before the event and came out of it after the event. During the event, everybody disappeared. Nice mystery. Just like the singularity of a black hole, no information can get out.

In the real world, scientists are seriously talking about a singularity. Advances in a huge number of scientific disciplines are progressing at a geometric rate. It's possible, likely even, that these will interact in totally unforeseen ways. Events are moving so fast futurists cannot project where they will end up. In effect, the cart is just about to disappear. We can't see beyond the lip of the cliff.

Cliff number two: resource depletion. I've been following this one since the 70's. We are running out of the very stuff we need to maintain a complex technological civilization. Potable water supplies around the world are in deep trouble. Oil production cannot keep up with demand. We've already used two thirds of the world's resources. Our food production is highly unstable. When it takes 10 calories of oil to produce one calorie of food, something's wrong. Strategic minerals are in short supply. Even things like coal and uranium will eventually run out.

Something's going to give. Resource depletion has happened to societies before. The inhabitants of Easter Island used up all their natural resources. Trees were cut down. Anything edible consumed. By the end, they were even eating each other. The population crashed. Their cart fell off a cliff.

Anyone trying to foresee the future has to take both trends into account: the pace of scientific discovery and the pace of resource depletion.

It's possible to imagine one problem taking care of the other. Scientific breakthroughs could find ways around resource depletion. On the flip side, the collapse of civilization from resource depletion could make the whole idea of scientific advancement a moot point.

There are other alternatives. An elite group could continue toward a technological singularity while the unlucky masses experience die off from resource depletion. One part of the human race would inherit the stars, while the other part, starving, sick, and desperate, would head back to the caves.

What will really happen? Who knows? Some think that we don't have to worry because science will come and save us all. To me, this sounds too much like my radical Christian friends for comfort. Don't have to worry about the environment, as we'll all be raptured.
Well, as one who isn't a good candidate for rapture, and not willing to take a chance on scientific miracles, I'm thinking that maybe addressing the resource depletion problem is a good idea.

It is possible to live in a sustainable fashion. In the long run, it's necessary. We have the technology right now to make some serious progress toward living in a manner the planet can support. I hope we do. The scientific singularity looks like it might be interesting, and I want humanity to have a chance to explore it.

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